How to Estimate ARV Like a Pro Using Real Data (Not Guesswork)

The After Repair Value (ARV) represents what a property will realistically sell for once it is fully renovated to standard market conditions. Inexperienced flippers often look at the highest priced house in a neighborhood and assume that is their ARV. This is incredibly dangerous.

Rule 1: Use Only 'Sold' Data

Active listings show what sellers *want*, not what buyers are willing to pay. Pending listings are helpful, but sold listings (within the last 3-6 months) are the only absolute truth. If the market is shifting fast, prioritize comps from the last 90 days.

Rule 2: Stay Within the Neighborhood Boundaries

Crossing a major highway, a railroad track, or entering a different school district can shift house values by $50,000+. Keep your comps within a 0.5 to 1-mile radius from your subject property, and respect hard geographical boundaries.

Rule 3: Match the Specs (Apples to Apples)

Your comps must match your subject property. Compare 3 bed/2 baths to other 3 bed/2 baths. Do not compare a 1,200 sqft ranch to a 2,500 sqft two-story colonial. Try to stay within a 15-20% variance in square footage.

Rule 4: Compare Condition

You cannot use a newly constructed house as a comp for a 1970s house you simply put lipstick on. Your target comps should represent the level of finish you plan to provide. If your comp has luxury appliances and a pool, ensure you adjust the value down if your subject property lacks these.

Rule 5: The Appraisal Approach

Once you are under contract with a retail buyer, a bank appraiser will verify your price. Think exactly like an appraiser. Use the exact same metrics they do so there are no surprises at closing.